Why Celtic defeated RB Leipzig at their own game in the UCL

Leipzig youth product Nicolas Kuhn would come back to haunt his former employers, as his excellent double would cancel out Cristoph Baumgartner’s header in the first half. After the restart, Reo Hatate would profit off of a Peter Gulacsi mistake, as the keeper’s spilling of the ball from a cross would fall to the midfielder, who made no mistake from a couple of yards out. It could – and should – have been more for Celtic on the night, but they secured the all-important win, leaving them with seven points after just four games – a healthy position at the halfway point of the ‘League Phase’.

Using StatsBomb metrics and data, The Celtic Way’s Ryan McGinlay brings you a match report unlike any other…

Key stats + race chart

No, your eyes do not deceive you, Celtic dominated possession against Marco Rose’s RB Leipzig side. With 60 per cent of the ball, as well as nearly 700 attempted passes (a 90 per cent completion rate), Brendan Rodgers’ side were a force to be reckoned with when in control of the ball. 17 shots were attempted, though only five were on target, which resulted in three goals at an accumulated xG of 2.03 to Leipzig’s 1.25. The base stats from this game tell a story – Celtic deserved this victory on the night.

When observing the race chart from Tuesday night’s game, both sides were pretty even for the first 20 minutes until Baumgartner’s header in the 22nd minute put Leipzig in front. Celtic would gain some ground with Kuhn’s long-range equaliser, before his tap-in would shoot the home side in front – both in the game and in the race chart concerning xG. Both sides would stay neck and neck, before Celtic would pull away following their third through Hatate, ending up with an xG total of 2.03.

Because of this, Celtic were given a 55 per cent probability of winning this fixture with the chances made, while a draw was calculated as having a 24 per cent chance. The visitors to Celtic Park were only given a 21 per cent chance of winning this game on the night.

Formation and passing 

Interestingly, StatsBomb reckons that Celtic lined up in a changed 4-1-4-1 formation for this game, rather than the usual 4-3-3, which is the norm in domestic competition. Kasper Schmeichel started in goals, while Greg Taylor returned at left-back – the only change from Saturday’s Aberdeen win at Hampden. Alistair Johnston operated at right-back, while the defensive partnership of Auston Trusty and Cameron Carter-Vickers remained in place for the third straight game. Captain Callum McGregor played at the base of midfield, supported by Arne Engels and Hatate, while Kyogo Furuhashi led the line, with Kuhn and Maeda on his right and left respectively.

When looking at the passing network (which considers OBV – on-ball value), it shows how Celtic operated during this game in their positioning. Clearly playing on the counter. Celtic’s defenders were in their own half, while their attackers were typically where the midfielders would be in a domestic game. Observing the lines between each player, the backline and midfield was well connected concerning passes, while the wingers (especially Kuhn) were given the ball regularly. Kyogo cut an isolated figure up front, though his efforts off the ball cannot be forgotten about, either.

Despite having mixed games to the naked eye, Celtic’s full-backs both show up really well statistically in OBV, particularly Johnston. 0.44 OBV for 79 passes, while his opposite full-back managed 0.23 for 44 passes – the club’s wide defenders showed up in a big way in the eyes of this metric. 

There was a standout performer concerning key passes in this game, as Engels managed five – a combined xG of 0.44 – a game-high total. Hatate, Maeda, Alex Valle and Kuhn all had one key pass each.

Shooting 

Here comes the fun part of this StatsBomb report. Though Celtic had just five shots on target, they peppered their opponents with shots and got their just rewards by winning by two clear goals. Though two of their goals were from close range – which is signified by the warm-coloured shapes, Celtic got shots away from distance, too, including Kuhn’s long-range curler which left Gulasci with no chance in the opposition’s goal.

Let’s start there, shall we? Following an intricate touch by Engels to get the ball to the attacker, Kuhn took the ball to the edge of the ball before unleashing a curling drive towards goal, which clipped off the post and went in. Thanks to the touch off the frame of the goal, the Hungarian goalkeeper was left with no chance of keeping the goal-bound strike out of his net – one of the great Celtic Park European goals from the former RB Leipzig player.

Calculated at 0.03 in both xG and PSxG, this was a wonderstrike from Kuhn that brought Celtic right back into the contest. In truth, they did not look back after this moment, as the momentum firmly shifted following the scoring of this goal.

Though Kuhn was the hero for the second goal concerning its ending up in the back of the net, this goal was all about Celtic’s press and drive to win the ball back. Maeda, Hatate and Taylor were all over Leipzig in a flash, causing their defenders to lapse on the ball in a dangerous area. Hatate then passed the ball into the box, where it was picked up by Taylor on the by-line inside the area who squared it into the area. Maeda missed his chance completely – kicking thin air - though Kuhn was there to tap home from a couple of yard out.

Scored in first-half injury time, this goal changed the complexion of the game completely and put Celtic in the driving seat – they did not look back. A rise from 0.55 to 0.99 in PSxG, Kuhn was in the right place at the right time, showing he can score both difficult strikes and simple ones, too. Make that 19 goal contributions for this season already – we’re in November!

Celtic would make sure of their win through Hatate – a standout performer on the night – though this is not a goal that Gulasci will want to see again anytime soon. Johnston’s ball into the box should have been dealt with by the veteran keeper, though he dropped it right in front of Hatate, who stabbed it home from close range. 

0.28 to 0.69, Hatate’s standout showing was rewarded with a goal, which he celebrated with much gusto. Celtic would stop their scoring here, though the stats will say that other goals could have been scored by the home side if they were more clinical.

With six shots, Hatate was Celtic’s top attacking force on the night with a combined xG of 0.55. Kuhn had three – scoring twice – with 0.66 xG, while Kyogo had two. Yang and Engels contributed a shot each.

Defending

Though Celtic had the lion’s share of possession, they also outpressured RB Leipzig – a team built on the philosophies of pressing and getting in opponents’ faces – possibly Celtic’s greatest achievement last night. 164 to 163, the pressure stats were close, though Celtic came out on top, though they dominated on pressure regains at a rate of 50-25 in favour of the home side.

Trusty was Celtic’s best defender last night, managing six combined tackles and interceptions, though Johnston managed five at right-back. Maeda and McGregor chipped in, too, with four combined each. Johnston had five clearances, while Carter-Vickers had four on the night. Trusty led the way in aerial wins, winning three on what was a dominating night for Celtic on both ends of the pitch. 

Final thoughts

Celtic were awesome on Tuesday night – that’s the word that immediately springs to mind after their showing against RB Leipzig. Personally, I have never seen the team play as well as that against top-quality opponents – the lavish praise is warranted on this occasion.

Rodgers has now drawn out the perfect blueprint for how the club should play in the Champions League – one that soaks up pressure before hitting teams on the counter – like they did in pre-season versus Manchester City and Chelsea. Seeing this style of play in a competitive game was very encouraging.

Celtic now have seven points after just four games in this season’s competition, putting them in a great position at the halfway stage. With Club Brugge up next – a team not as strong on paper as their opponents last night – Celtic must aim for a win to take them to 10 points, before a massive trip away to GNK Dinamo next month.

Before a ball was kicked, the target for many was the play-offs. Apart from Aston Villa away at Villa Park on Matchday Eight, you would back Celtic to be able to win every other game until then. Because of this, a top-eight finish is not just a hope, but a distinct possibility at this stage.

Celtic can dare to dream, after picking up four magnificent points against the might of Atalanta and RB Leipzig respectively.