Why Celtic are improving statistically under Brendan Rodgers

On the Premier Sports commentary, they falsely claimed he had not saved a shot yet during the League Cup tie at Hibernian. This isn’t true – Schmeichel fielded two tame efforts in the home league match versus Kilmarnock. But, such was their impotence, I can forgive him for forgetting.

A goal was – however - conceded in that cup tie. An incredible header from Mykola Kukharevych brought the Hibees back into the match at 2-1. It was an amazing effort as he flew guiding the ball from wide of the six-yard box over Schmeichel's head and into the far corner of the net. The goal, from a deep free-kick pass, had an xG value of around 0.02.

The wonder strike was one of two efforts the Edinburgh side had on target as manager David Gray cycled through the coach's formations handbook in search of a way to contain the champions. That brought to four the total shots on target achieved by Kilmarnock and Hibernian in Celtic’s three domestic matches.

Football analysis is still largely confined to what happens with the ball – event data. We hope and pray geospatial and off-ball data will one day be available to the public but that is likely some way off given the technology and commercial considerations.

I try to apply my mind to what didn’t happen as much as what did, therefore. Which brings me back to the relative lack of jeopardy facing the Celtic goal - does the data back that up?

Sun-tan Schmeichel

It’s been a largely relaxed start for Celtic and new stopper Schmeichel has been more noted for his passing out from the back than any goalkeeping heroics.

A bit of a stat attack to back that up. I know three games is a small sample, but Kilmarnock were the 4th best team in Scotland last season and Easter Road is the most difficult domestic venue Celtic visit based on recent history. All numbers are per 90-minute averages against Scottish opponents. xG against is 0.35 compared to last season where the Scottish opposition averaged 0.98 per match. The average xG per shot is considerably lower also – 0.128 down to 0.076.

So far Hibernian and Kilmarnock have averaged 1.33 shots on target - almost half of last season's 2.57. Celtic have allowed 7.33 touches in their penalty box by opposition players whilst last term it was 12.07. The opponents are averaging ten Celtic defenders out of the game through packing. This was 18 last campaign.

My aggregated attacking threat metric (CAT score) – for opposition teams was 21 last season and is 12 so far this. Broadly, those key attacking metrics are around 50 per cent lower than for all matches against Scottish teams in the 2023-24 season.

I’ve thrown many statistics at you there, but you get the point that Celtic have been successful in neutering the opposition thus far.

Context

Always consider the relevant context.

Kilmarnock were between European ties, and with a couple of key defensive absences, manager Derek McInnes was quick to get his excuses in early ahead of the Flag Day meeting. Hibernian are adapting to new manager Gray and a slew of new signings. Their defending was haphazard at best, and they cycled through four different setups at Celtic Park alone.

But - as Brendan Rodgers always says - it is what Celtic do that matters.

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The Rodgers factor

Celtic have only made three transfer signings of significance so far this summer, and the main starter is the aforementioned Schmeichel. Paulo Bernardo has two brief substitute appearances and Adam Idah got a 30-minute canter around the paddock on Sunday.

Therefore, this is the same group of players that, in February 2024, looked like they may lose the league to Philippe Clement’s all-stars. No one could argue that Celtic were consistently fluent last season - habitually sparkling for brief periods in games. Can you name a true ‘90-minute’ performance?

And neither have they this season. But again, context. Celtic’s early intensity and fluidity have led to goals (five before the 20th minute in three matches) and they have been able to manage games in such a way that non-stop attacking aggression has not been required.

What we have seen is control. Possession averages 75 per cent compared to 68 last term. Celtic averages 882 on-ball events per game compared to 764 last season.  I have a bespoke metric called ‘Possession Effectiveness Index’ (PEI). This is the ratio of possession won or maintained from each on-ball event versus the ball lost. Last season this was 81 per cent, and this season it is 85.

Celtic has been more effective in the packing metrics. Almost a hundred more in the pack passing score (532 to 437). Tellingly, 38 opposition defenders have been packed per game compared to 20 last season. All this despite the defensive line being slightly less aggressive – 48.26 metres from their own goal compared to 49.86.

Such has Celtic’s level of ball control that there has been little need for high-volume pressing and counter-pressing. Pressures are down from 134 per game to 98. Counter pressures from 34 to 23. This does not mean Celtic are being less aggressive off the ball – Rodgers spoke of the press being the creative trigger. The heightened control means less effort expended in pressing / counter-pressing. Yet the quality of those pressing actions remains high with 20 percent resulting in ball regains.

Indeed, if we look at the passing per Celtic defensive action the opponents are managing it has fallen from 6.6 to 4.8.

Summary

Better press effectiveness – efficiency over volume (less effort), and early goals leading to game management all speak to better organisation.

Given the outfield players have not changed, the manager must get credit for what is an increasingly well-drilled outfit. The attacking rotations and movements are clear. Quick final third interchanges are proving difficult for teams to cope with. Defensively, on the increasingly rare moments the opponents get the ball, the pressures are organised and consistently implemented.

Caution must be stamped in red across this piece. European football will stress this considerably. Should Celtic lose the guts of central midfield, a period of adjustment and collective re-learning of patterns will be required.

So far, three games in, we are seeing similar signs as we saw in Ange Postecoglou’s season two. A well-drilled side, improved in wing play, choking opponents into submission with intensity and control. Set the giddy status to ‘heightened’.