Why Celtic and Kuhn can exploit Rangers' weak left side

Second-place Rangers are a point behind in the Scottish Premiership title race going into the third league derby of the season but do have a game in hand on the champions. Perhaps not a ‘must-win’, Sunday is arguably a ‘must not lose’ for Brendan Rodgers’ side as they look to control their own title destiny heading into the final weeks of the campaign which of course includes another derby post-split.

Coaches and analysts of both sides will have spent this week meticulously studying each other as they look to plot a path to success in what has been billed as one of the biggest derbies in years. The midfield battleground will no doubt be crucial, as it often is, how defences deal with their opposing centre-forward will have a big say but here we pinpoint another area where Celtic could get joy as they look to pull off another Ibrox job as they did last September.

Exploit Rangers’ left side

Rangers have been the most defensively sound in the Scottish Premiership this season, conceding 0.57 xG per 90 compared to Celtic’s 0.78 per 90 (StatsBomb). However, they have given up more than their season average in their last three league matches, conceding four goals in the process. So, although they have, throughout the season, been more consistent in limiting the opposition, they have certainly not in their ‘best’ form defensively in recent weeks.

One area where they have had issues is at left-back. Phillipe Clement has often preferred Ridvan Yilmaz to the experienced Borna Barasic this season but the Turkish international picked up a hamstring injury with his national side last month and missed their 3-1 win over Hibs last weekend. Barasic came in but also appeared to pick up a knock with utility player Dujon Sterling filling in at left-back for the remainder of the match against the Edinburgh side. Regardless of who has played though, they seem to have had issues defending down that side in recent weeks.

The below graphics from Wyscout show the opposition has had more positional attacks down the Rangers left in the last two league games. Motherwell did have the same number of positional attacks centrally as they did on the left in their 2-1 win last month but generated higher quality of attacks (xG) down the left.

Motherwell’s opener in their shock win at Ibrox came from a set-piece that targeted Yilmaz while last weekend Hibs exploited space in behind in transition for their equaliser. Although different types of attacks from those included in the graphic, both, tellingly, also came down the Rangers’ left. Below we can see the transition phase that Hibs made the most of last Saturday.

With Barasic caught up the pitch after a Rangers attack broke down, midfielder John Lundstram had to cover in at left-back. He was exposed to the pace of Elie Youan though who left the Englishman for dead.

This then forced centre-back John Souttar out of position to close down Youan in a wide area, leaving two Hibs attackers in the box against just Connor Goldson. Youan did well to pick out Myziane Maolida who had time to control and then prod the ball beyond Jack Butland from just outside the six-yard box.

Rodgers will seek to control possession on Sunday, as he always does, but it is likely Rangers will have periods of sustained pressure as they look for their first derby win this season. With Lundstram also likely being asked to cover again when Rangers push, on whoever plays at left-back, this opens up space to counter, like Hibs had last weekend.

Whoever plays left-back may well have Fabio Silva in front of them too. The on-loan Wolves striker has been utilised by Clement in a wide-left attacking midfield position in their 4-2-3-1 and while this gives them a greater attacking threat in behind the main striker, his lack of natural defensive instincts may be part of the reason Rangers have found themselves exposed on left. Celtic could have just the player to take advantage, should the hosts offer similar encouragement down their left again this weekend…

Nicolas Kuhn threat

Celtic probably haven’t had a winger in such fine form all season as Nicolas Kuhn is heading into the Glasgow Derby. The German picked up where he left off before the break with another standout display as Celtic defeated Livingston 3-0 at the weekend, as highlighted by Ryan McGinlay.

Although he didn't add to his goal or assist tally, he played a key role in the opener early in the first half when he pinched the ball back and crossed, which led to Reo Hatate’s shot cannoning into the net off a Livingston player. He ended the match with the highest xG Assisted (0.55) from three key passes. His display at the Tony Macaroni follows other recent promising displays by the £3 million January arrival from Rapid Vienna. As shown in the below radar from StatsBomb, in just over four 90s Kuhn has averaged 0.27 xG per 90 and 0.32 Open Play xG Assisted per 90.

This is despite a difficult start to his Celtic career which has been attributed to dental work he had just before his move, leading to fitness and weight issues. He has now started Celtic’s last three matches, all wins, and is almost guaranteed to take his place on the right wing on Sunday. Kuhn could therefore be particularly pivotal in exploiting Rangers’ potential vulnerability on their left side. His pace, which he has started to showcase on a more regular basis in the last few weeks, could make him a danger for the hosts in those transition phases or from a ball over the top in more set attacks.

In more set attacks, Kuhn has also demonstrated excellent close control and an ability to beat his man. If Sterling does indeed have to fill in at left-back, should neither Yilmaz or Barasic recover from respective injuries, Kuhn may fancy his chances 1v1 against the former Stoke City man in particular. Predominately right-footed, he may be susceptible down the outside. Although Kuhn is more of a danger coming in off the right onto his stronger left, he has also shown a willingness to beat his man on the outside too.

Another way Kuhn could cause the Rangers backline problems on Sunday could be by getting on the end of things himself. This is something Liel Abada had a knack for doing in these fixtures previously, getting himself between the posts to finish when the ball was on the opposite side. Barasic, in particular, has often been the guilty party in this regard. Kuhn has shown signs he is capable of doing this too. His second league goal came from the winger getting himself in the middle of the goal to finish after Kyogo did well to break in behind down the St Johnstone right in the recent 3-1 win at Celtic Park.

A few question marks over Kuhn may be off-the-ball. As his radar also shows, he has shown admirable willingness out of possession, winning the ball back an impressive 5.01 per 90 through pressure regains, but he will also have to play his part in protecting Alistair Johnston behind him. He showed this to good effect against Livingston for the opener last weekend, as mentioned, but he remains untested in this regard at a higher level.

Summary

Sunday will represent a big step up for Kuhn, in terms of the level of opposition he has come up against so far in his Celtic career. However, whether it is using his pace to exploit space left by Barasic in transition phases, as Hibs did last weekend, latching onto balls over the top of Yilmaz, as Motherwell did last month, or taking on Sterling in 1v1 situations, there is a potential that Kuhn plays a pivotal role at Ibrox, no matter who fills the left-back spot for the home side.

From being written off by some after just a few weeks to potentially having a big say in a season-defining derby, Sunday could mark quite the turnaround for the January arrival.