This article was written before Wednesday night's game against Dundee.

Last weekend's ultimately successful visit to Motherwell provided further evidence, especially in a ragged first half, that the Celtic 2023-24 team under Brendan Rodgers is still searching for consistency and cohesion in their performances.

Many aspects of the team’s performances under Rodgers have surprised me. The increase in long balls and attempted through balls; the even higher line than the Ange 'Line of Death'; the hyper-aggressive pressing; and that the team is taking more shots than even the Australian’s attacking machine. Admittedly, it is a modest uptick of 17.31 compared to 17.17 last season.

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All of the above tend to negate the rather inaccurate 'slow and ponderous and 'horseshoe of futility' tropes I see regularly. That is not to say that the football is ineffective, but merely less effective in different ways than many perceive.

Today I want to compare the current squad historically in two aspects – chance quality as measured by average expected assist value per chance created and shot quality as measured by average expected goal value per shot taken. The higher these values, the more effective the team are at getting into positions to deliver telling passes and get into positions to take effective high-value shots. And vice-versa.

I have the data outlined back to 2017-18.

Full-backs

The current players who have completed over 900 minutes are highlighted in red. Not the worst then, and the chances created are towards the higher end of the spectrum.

Interesting takeaways from this view are:

  • Note how Jeremie Frimpong stands out using this view – he is currently an integral part of a rampaging Bayer Leverkusen side and his performances in the attacking sense at Celtic showed this potential.
  • Both Josip Juranovic and Greg Taylor - vintage 2021-22 - are the best-ranked pairing in this population. That was Postecoglou’s first season. Taylor is not hitting those heights but surprisingly is more productive than in 2022-23.
  • Alistair Johnston is not reaching last season's standard for chance creation as yet.
  • Anthony Ralston is consistently ‘in the pack’ as you might expect for a backup player.

So, not the worst but both the starting fullbacks can do better.

Central midfield

A little congested but there is some pattern with the defensive midfielders to the bottom right.

What is surprising and encouraging is that both Matt O’Riley and Paolo Bernardo show up in the more productive top-left segment. A glance in that direction also reveals what a big loss Aaron Mooy is (I might have mentioned that before) and how well Tom Rogic played in his final year at Celtic under his fellow Australian in that hybrid 8/10 role.

Slightly galling is the form the recently sold David Turnbull was showing before his exit. However, if Celtic can get Reo Hatate back and he can recapture his 2022-23 form, Celtic will have three players in the upper productive quadrant at the same time.

Finally, this view shows that hoping a regressing Callum McGregor is the answer in the more advanced eight position is misguided and the first half at Motherwell should have disavowed anyone with that perception.

Wingers

By this view, you might be surprised how little Jota stands out. As with this season's replacement, Luis Palma, they are both volume over quality. They both provide a lot of chances and take a lot of shots on a relative basis, but the average quality is not necessarily high.

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What might also surprise is how well Daizen Maeda plots given his obvious struggles to demonstrate the usual arts of wing play. It goes to show that if you can point him in the right direction and his radar is switched on, then good stuff can happen.

Sadness all around for the situation the club and Liel Abada find themselves in. From a purely footballing perspective, this is a huge loss to this squad. Not a vintage year for wing play, as you have probably heard me say many times. But maybe not as chronic through this lens.

Strikers

The concentration of strikers from the Postecoglou interregnum, the period between shareholder-driven appointments, highlights that sometimes the system is stronger than the players selected. The commonality in numbers between two very different stylistic and inherent quality strikers in Kyogo Furuhashi and Giorgos Giakoumakis illustrates how the attacking patterns were honed to get the best out of the focal points.

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There are not yet sufficient minutes to include Adam Idah in this view, and the two other current strikers have fallen back into the middle pack. Still not terrible in relative terms especially as regards shot quality, but not reaching the potential highlighted by optimal usage under the Australian.

Summary

Focussing on shot quality and chance quality only reveals that whilst we are not surprised the same players under Postecoglou’s highly structured system are not as effective this season, using a historical perspective shows that there is still optimism given prior years’ performances. The challenge remains getting the best out of the strikers and that mainly involves improving wing play. Hatate returning will likely improve midfield productivity.

The issues are consistent and obvious, but it is evolution, not revolution needed to improve overall effectiveness for the run-in.