Could Celtic part ways with Kyogo Furuhashi this summer?

Kyogo Furuhashi – signed from Vissel Kobe in 2021 – is a bona fide hero in and around these parts, with the forward consistently delivering for the club, regardless of the stage, situation or location. A stalwart under both Ange Postecoglou and the incumbent Brendan Rodgers, the 29-year-old is entering his fourth season with the club, though he faces fresh uncertainty concerning his long-term future with the club.

Admittedly, these doubts were present for a spell last summer but were dispelled following the signing of his contract extension, which kept him contracted until the summer of 2027. At the time, this felt like a signal of approval from Kyogo to the new manager, who was equally as keen to work with Celtic’s main man in an attacking sense.

Fast-forward a year, and it seems like Kyogo is a bit of an afterthought concerning this summer and the going-ons surrounding the summer transfer window. With Adam Idah now back – for now, at least – at parent club Norwich City following his excellent loan spell up north and Oh Hyeon-gyu’s future almost certainly lying away from Celtic and Scotland, Kyogo’s situation feels like a non-story, though it is anything but.

Using StatsBomb data metrics, TCW’s Ryan McGinlay crunches the numbers on the Japan international, as his fit continues to be questioned under Rodgers at Celtic…

The simple statistics

From looking at Kyogo’s numbers in his Celtic career, you find yourself asking the question: ‘What is the issue here?’. Indeed, the diminutive striker has scored 73 goals in 133 total games for the club since his surprise arrival in July 2021. Additionally, he has managed 15 assists too, as his keenness to get others involved has not gone unnoticed in his overall statistics.

Despite an injury-hit first season at the club under Postecoglou, Kyogo managed 20 goals in just 33 total appearances, as he helped his new side secure the double in his debut season in both Scotland and Europe in general. His sophomore outing was more fruitful in both availability and goalscoring, as he amassed 34 goals in 50 games, spearheading Postecoglou’s all-conquering treble side of 2022/23 almost single-handedly.

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Last season presented its own challenges for the fan-favourite, though not through a lack of trying on Kyogo’s part. Making 50 appearances again for Celtic, he only managed 19 goals, his lowest return yet whilst contracted to the club. Indeed, he started most games for the club – including the Champions League and Glasgow Derby matches – though his numbers paled in comparison to the campaign before.

It must be caveated, however, that Kyogo delivered on the big stage when called upon, despite his overall decline in goal conversions. Scoring massive goals against Rangers at Ibrox and Celtic Park respectively, as well as strikes against Atletico Madrid and Lazio in Europe, the club’s number eight played a big role in all things positive in pressure-filled situations.

StatsBomb data radar

Thanks to Kyogo being fit for consecutive seasons, comparing his last two campaigns is much simpler, offering symmetrical data gatherings on the player as a result. Using the same metrics as my Oh article yesterday, we can assess the areas which are important in a Rodgers team, as well as how he did under Postecoglou.

The one statistic that immediately jumps out at you is his goal conversion percentage, which dropped dramatically from 31 per cent to a lowly 14 per cent. Ranking in the 98th percentile in 2022/23, his rating dropped to 56 as a result of his poor conversion rate – an alarming statistic.

Elsewhere, his touches in the box lowered from 7.41 per game to 7.86, a percentile differential of seven between the two seasons (87 to 80). There was an increase in his dispossessions per 90, rising from 0.51 to 0.95 under Rodgers’ management, as well as a reduction in total xG per game from 0.65 to 0.55, a two-point reduction in the process concerning percentile. Strangely, he took less care with the ball under Rodgers, amounting to 2.67 turnovers per game, a negative increase on his 97th percentile total of 1.87 the season prior. In turn, this placed him in the 81st percentile for this metric.

Small downgrades in pressures, aerial duels and pressure regains are also present for the striker under Rodgers, who did struggle at times to get fully involved in what Rodgers was asking of him. Tasked with primarily putting the ball in the net for Postecoglou, his change in role is also noticeable in small upgrades concerning his creativity. His xG assisted doubled from 0.06 to 0.12 per 90, meaning a percentile rise of 28 to 74, whilst his key passes rose from 0.37 to 0.81 (5 to 47).

Amazingly, Kyogo did take slightly more shots under Rodgers last season, attempting 3.45 – an improvement on 3.23 – under the Northern Irishman’s management. He also managed more successful dribbles at 0.41, though this improvement was small in both average and percentile.

Shot maps

When observing the Japan striker's map of shots for both seasons, you get the impression that the forward is undoubtedly clinical in front of goal, with the ability to strike from range also. Kyogo’s stunning strike from outside of the box at Tannadice versus Dundee United was his only goal from distance in 2022/23, with many of his finishes coming from close range in the league. Helped by better service into the box – Kyogo’s domain – it is clear to see why Celtic’s talisman was thriving in this period. Jota and Liel Abada’s departures have been two big blows concerning the player’s service.

This lack of service is noticeable in the following campaign, though an interesting trend was beginning to form for the player concerning blocked shots in the box. The grey shapes represent a shot that has been blocked by a defender, so does this mean that the opposition is getting wise to the attacker’s methods? Three goals – two from the same position – outside of the box indicates a slight change in Kyogo’s confidence in taking more audacious shots on, but a much barer shot map with regard to goals scored.

Key passes and pressures

One element of Kyogo’s game that he has been working hard to improve on is his playmaking. Statistically, last season was his best in this area, as he managed to assist five times with his 24 combined key passes in the Scottish Premiership. He only managed one in the prior two seasons off of key passes in the league, which shows growth in his overall play under Rodgers. However, is it worth scoring fewer goals in favour of more assists, especially for a striker as dangerous in the box as Kyogo?

One thing is for sure, Kyogo does not stand still when playing for Celtic, regardless of the manager. 355 pressures in 2022/23 were bettered – just – in 2023/24 with 356, in turn maintaining the high standard off of the ball concerning his work rate. A shift is always put in when Kyogo takes to the field for his club, which the supporters love to see.

Summary

The case of Kyogo is a curious one, as it seems like the striker has been asked to do more on the creative side of the attack. Whether or not this is a good fit for the player – and the club as a whole – is entirely up for debate.

With Celtic needing at least one striker this summer, Rodgers may be looking to the future when it comes to strike options. It must be underlined that the manager did not sign Kyogo, so there is less loyalty associated with the player than if he was acquired by the manager. With that in mind, it may leave the forward in a precarious position in either the near future or further down the line.

Could Kyogo actually leave the club? All the power resides with Celtic on that front, as they have the striker signed up for another three years contractually. At 29, Kyogo may believe that his chances of securing a big international move may be past him. That being said, if a La Liga or Bundesliga side expresses interest, then you may see some movement on that front.

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Ultimately, Celtic’s continued pursuit of Idah may be key in determining whether or not Kyogo remains where he is. The Irishman is more of a ‘Rodgers’ forward in mould, akin to the likes of Odsonne Edouard and Moussa Dembele in style and physique. If Idah were to sign permanently, then what would the food chain look like at Celtic concerning strikers, especially for Kyogo? The mind both wanders and wonders.

The club’s transfer moves in the coming weeks and months will paint a clearer picture concerning Celtic’s talismanic figure’s future. Let the trials and tribulations of the transfer window truly begin this month for the club and its strikers.