Why Celtic are better under Brendan Rodgers this time around

Context - as always - is all, and Rodgers took over a side that had lost several key players (Carl Starfelt, Jota, and Aaron Mooy). He would then lose Liel Abada whilst being without Cameron Carter-Vickers, Reo Hatate and Callum McGregor for significant periods. The internal battles over recruitment policy meant like-for-like replacements were largely absent with “project” players brought in instead.

From a personnel perspective, it resembled Ange Postecoglou’s mildly chaotic first season. Both finally settled on around 17 players to get the league won. It never is “ideal” in any manager's mind, but the short story was Rodgers had less talent available than his predecessor.

What kind of Celtic team did he mould? I will cover this over several articles and today will focus on basic in and out of possession style.

In possession

A central tenet of any Rodgers side is possession of the ball. He likes his teams to dominate that aspect. It allows for control of game tempo, restricts opposition attacks, and is less tiring for your side.

With pleasing symmetry, Celtic achieved the same average possession percentage this season as in Rodgers’s first campaign in 2016-17 – 65 per cent. This is across all competitions.

 His sides' mastery of the ball grew in the subsequent two terms, to numbers not matched since, even by Postecoglou who was similarly possession-based. Expect to see even greater levels of control next season. The passing history indicates the changing nature of football – it is getting quicker.

Despite having similar possession to his first season in 2016-17, Celtic completed more passes and gave away more passes. Simply this shows that Celtic were attempting 48 more passes with the same possession – eight per cent more. Perhaps unsurprisingly, this came at a slight cost regarding accuracy. 86 per cent of passes completed is the lowest of Rodgers’s four seasons.

It is all relative, of course. The SPFL is getting more direct and faster as regards ball progression. Celtic are firmly “slow and intricate” as defined by Opta.

Yet, the direct speed (how quickly a team progresses the ball towards the opponent's goal in metres per second) of 1.77 is more direct than either of Postecoglou’s seasons. So, it is all relative. The league is becoming more direct, as is Celtic, but in relative terms, Celtic’s possession-based style is increasingly an outlier. Nearest rivals Rangers are adopting the longer more direct style favoured by the rest of the league.

Where Celtic needs to improve, and likely will if the manager is given time and a squad quality upgrade, is final third cohesion. Celtic completed 329 passes in the opposition half this season compared to 353 last. Completion in the opposition half fell from 81 per cent to 79.

We’ll dig into the final third activity and goal threat in more detail in a later piece.

Out of possession

Celtic’s basic shape out of possession has not altered much under Rodgers compared to his predecessor. Celtic fall back into a 4-4-2 structure if they are not pressing or counter-pressing, once the opposition has settled possession.

A subtle difference is in personnel usage. Under Postecoglou, it was Matt O’Riley who partnered Kyogo Furuhashi at the top of the defensive structure. Under Rodgers, it is usually Reo Hatate. This makes sense to me. I would want the more defensively sound O’Riley further back, as he reads space and times interceptions so well. I’d also want Hatate as far away from my goal as possible given the relative ease with which players run by and off him and his relative lack of defensive action capability. Also, his quick wit can be utilised if he can receive the ball with fewer defenders between him and the goal.

Where Rodgers has been even more aggressive than the famously assertive Australian is his team’s starting position.

In his first season, Postecoglou did not change the average defensive distance the side set up without the ball. As the personnel became familiar with his demands, the team was pushed up to a higher starting position defensively.

Rodgers has taken that to a new level with an average defensive position nearly 50 metres from their own goal -almost on the halfway line. This is more than one metre higher than the high-pressing Australian’s preference. This tactical aspect must be seen in tandem with how Celtic responds to losing the ball.

Again, Postecoglou with his “never stop” mantra could be considered a student of a hyper-pressing playing strategy. Rodgers, however, again takes that to a new level.

The Irishman’s side press 20 per cent more often than the Australians. Remember that Postecoglou’s side had slightly more possession but still this is a significant increase in volume of pressing activity. Consequently, they regain the ball more often from pressing. 27.13 times, a 17 per cent increase.

Counter-pressing (pressing within five seconds of losing the ball) is not significantly different to Rodgers’s 2018-19 side. However, when we see the data for counter-pressing in the opposition half only, there are starker discrepancies.

This shows that the volume of counter-pressures has increased slightly in the opposition half, but as a percentage of all counter-pressures it is a significantly greater proportion. More simply, what we saw under Neil Lennon was a similar level of counter-pressing, but under Rodgers, compared to his peers, it is more focused in the opposition half.

I would argue that’s smarter and means the team is making better decisions around when and where to press. When the opposition has the ball in your half, a solid structure and shape is often preferable to a pressing strategy given the holes that can emerge.

Summary

I do not believe Rodgers has his team where he wants them in terms of the level of control of the ball, and we can expect to see that become more consuming next season. What is true at the same time is that his team play quicker and more directly than during his first term, which is in keeping with general trends.

Out of possession, credit to Rodgers for his bravery in pushing his side very high up the pitch to squeeze the game, also in implementing a relentless pressing and counter-pressing strategy. It will be fun to see this further finessed. Smarter and more athletic players are needed here. This chimes with his recruitment demands. I expect Rodgers’s side to increase cohesion and effectiveness if he is given the necessary player quality upgrade.

I’ll focus on attacking threats, packing trends and opposition trends over the coming weeks.