AFTER two games this season, Hearts, Hibs and Aberdeen had gathered maximum points and the hyperbolic, yet somehow mandatory, proffering of a title race involving more than two horses began.
One by one, they've started to fall away before Halloween. The latter were first to stumble, for eight consecutive domestic matches, and they'd barely left the paddock while Hibs and Hearts powered on with wins or draws throughout September.
Now at the end of the following month, the Jambos are the ones who remain unbeaten and in touch with the top of the table while Jack Ross needs to guide his side back onto the straight and narrow after three consecutive league defeats.
Rangers at Ibrox, United at Easter Road and Aberdeen at Pittodrie are the fixtures that have befallen them, with the result against the Dons on Saturday particularly damaging given the plight of their hosts over the last two months.
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The Leith side have scored one goal from open play in their previous four games and the lack of current cohesion in their attack was evident against the Dons, with Hibs looking toothless when tasked with making the transition from middle to final third and, on the rare occasion they broke through, struggling to link-up with any sense of threat and failing to register a single shot on target for Joe Lewis to thwart.
Three losses in a row isn't form we've come to expect from Hibs - last week was the first time they've dropped out of the top four in the Premiership for 40 games - but some context in their defence for the first two is that they were playing Rangers and Dundee United, two of the more in-form sides in the league.
But it's not just results that show something is wrong. Even against Aberdeen, who have a strong squad but were on a shocking run, they were dealt with comfortably and an easy conclusion to reach is Hibs are formidable when playing against teams inferior to their own. When they have to challenge equals or superiors, they struggle to win - Ross County and Livingston are the only two teams in the league they've overcome with at least a two-goal cushion this season.
Results are stagnating and, as was seen against Aberdeen, so is their goal threat. It will return at some point but in every league game this season, until the last three, Hibs have had a cumulative xG of at least one. In some cases, it's been at least, or nearly, two. Against Rangers, United and Aberdeen, the combined xG is 0.97, a low total for a team that were the league's second top scorers, behind Celtic, before kick-off on October 16.
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Martin Boyle is their main goal threat. He's scored 10 this season, including six in the league. He averages nearly four-and-a-half progressive runs per game but that stat is boosted by two particularly energetic games against Dundee United, one in the League Cup, when he had 11 and 12 respectively. He's also managing to take nearly three shots on goal per game but, as Hibs' form has dipped over the last month, so has Boyle's. Or maybe it's the other way around? Certainly, it's fair to assess the two are linked.
It doesn't take a genius to recognise that the more Boyle has the ball, the more likely Hibs are to hurt their opponent. In games against those peripheral sides like Livingston, St Mirren and Ross County, Boyle received the ball 52 times in total - an average of 17 times per game. Against Rangers, United and Aberdeen, he was found 26 times - an average of nine times. The moral of the story is, if you can prevent Boyle from showcasing his talent, Hibs become a less threatening team.
The Hibs' defence doesn't seem to cope well with pace themselves. Against Aberdeen, a game I witnessed the full 90 minutes of, the back three of Darren McGregor, Paul Hanlon and Paul McGinn weren't comfortable running towards their own goal while the pace of Marley Watkins or Ryan Hedges was in full flight - the direct nature of their runs petrified them (FAO Kyogo Furuhashi, Jota and Liel Abada). On Wednesday night, though, Darren McGregor won't feature after his red card against Aberdeen, which coincides with the return of Ryan Porteous.
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In midfield, Hibs have swapped the more industrial and intimidating Alex Gogic for Jake Doyle-Hayes and the Irishman seems to be the preferred partner for Joe Newell. They're both tidy, technical players and Doyle-Hayes is capable of anchoring the Hibs midfield; this season he's won nearly 60 per cent of his battles, reads the game well enough to make at least five interceptions a game and also recover the ball 10 times every 90 minutes too. Stopping David Turnbull and Tom Rogic could well be top of his to-do list on Wednesday night.
However stopping Celtic, who haven't won in the league at Easter Road since 2014, will be on Jack Ross.
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